Soccer's Late Adoption of Analytics
Soccer embraced the 'moneyball' revolution later than other sports because it was once perceived as too complex, with too many players and random progression to model reliably.
2Odd Lots
Why Soccer Analytics Works Like Volatility Arbitrage Trading
Two soccer analytics veterans discuss how data modeling has transformed the sport, comparing it to financial trading strategies.
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Why Soccer Analytics Works Like Volatility Arbitrage Trading
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Modern Data Mining in Soccer
Modern soccer analytics involves mining data through tracking, on-ball statistics, and even analyzing body poses and movement to predict outcomes.
3Expert Insights on Sports Data
Mike Treacy and Joris Bekkers discuss how data analytics can capture ineffable qualities like hustle and compare soccer strategy to chess.
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“How does VAR impact the reliability of soccer analytics?”
“What are the key differences in analytics strategies between European leagues and the MLS?”
“In what ways is soccer strategy similar to chess?”
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Questions
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How has the perception of soccer analytics changed?
Soccer was once perceived as too complex and random to model, but is now a data-rich field utilizing metrics like xG and body pose analysis.
23What specific data points are used in modern soccer analytics?
Analytics include tracking data, on-ball data, and analysis of body poses and movement.
3Who are the experts discussed in this episode?
The episode features Mike Treacy, head of risk at Apex Fintech Solutions, and Joris Bekkers, a soccer analytics consultant.
4Experts
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Sources and disclosure
Where this guide comes from.
This guide is based on the episode 'Why Soccer Analytics Works Like Volatility Arbitrage Trading' from the show Odd Lots, published on 2026-07-16.
- Publisher show notes
American sports fans have long been comfortable talking in the language of stats and analytics.
- Publisher show notes
Soccer embraced the 'moneyball' revolution later; the sport was once perceived as too complex to model analytically — there were too many players on the pitch, the game's progression was too random and chaotic to reliably predict.
- Publisher show notes
That's no longer the case, and soccer watchers are well aware of stats like xG (Expected Goals) and each match is an opportunity for a team to mine data, whether its tracking data, on-ball data, or even analyzing body poses and movement.
- Publisher show notes
Today, we speak with two soccer analytics veterans, Mike Treacy (head of risk at Apex Fintech Solutions) and Joris Bekkers (a soccer analytics consultant).
- Publisher show notes
Treacy's background includes a stint in analytics for a Premier League team and he's currently advising the MLS team Austin FC while Bekkers has built software that analyzes raw soccer data and he's worked with the US Soccer Federation.
- Publisher show notes
We talk to them about how VAR has affected the sport, how data analytics can capture ineffable things like hustle, how European leagues and the MLS differ in their analytics strategy, and why chess and soccer are not so dissimilar.
- Publisher show notes
Read more: The Lawyer Taking On StubHub Over World Cup Ticket Sales Polymarket Partners With Crypto Firm During World Cup
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