High Probability of US Ground Troops
Robert Pape estimates a 70% chance that US ground troops will be deployed to Iran within the week, marking a significant escalation from the current bombing campaign.
135Urgent Update
Iran War Expert: 70% Chance US Sends Troops To Iran This Week
Professor Robert Pape explains why the deadliest phase of the Iran war is ahead, how Iran seized control of 20% of the world's oil supply, and why US ground troops may be next.
Listen to the source episode
URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: 70% Chance US Sends Troops To Iran THIS WEEK! | Robert Pape
Continue in GenPod
Turn this episode into your next question.
Ask naturally. GenPod can find a related episode—or make a focused explainer when the right one does not exist.Key takeaways
What to know before you press play.
Failure of US Bombing Campaign
The US bombing campaign failed to topple Iran's regime despite killing top leaders, allowing Iran to seize control of 20% of the world's oil supply and emerge as a regional hegemon.
35Global Economic and Security Risks
The conflict poses risks of a global economic crisis, with Trump warning the US could run out of oil in four weeks, and a potential wave of terror attacks worldwide.
135Geopolitical Gains for Rivals
Both China and Russia benefit from the US remaining stuck in the Middle East, while a failed agreement has handed Iran a path to becoming the most powerful country in the region.
3Political Tensions and Congressional Clash
Pape anticipates a clash between Congress and the President over war powers, with the conflict acting as a 'time bomb' for the midterm elections and drawing parallels to the Vietnam War.
35Ask GenPod next
Keep the question moving.
“What specific military strategies does Robert Pape recommend for the US in Iran?”
“How does the current Iran conflict compare to the Vietnam War according to Pape?”
“What are the potential global terror attacks Pape predicts as a result of the war?”
Background reading
The context behind the episode.
Expert Profile
About Robert Pape
Robert Pape is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of 'Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism'.
2Questions
Questions to carry into the episode.
Why did the US bombing campaign fail to topple Iran's regime?
The campaign failed to remove the regime despite killing top leaders, allowing Iran to consolidate power and control 20% of the world's oil supply.
35How has Iran maintained its military capability during the war?
Iran continues to build new drones and hides them effectively, such as in trucks, allowing them to continue hitting US bases despite claims of destruction.
35What are the economic implications of the war?
The war has triggered a potential global economic crisis, with Iran controlling 20% of the world's oil supply and warnings that the US could run out of oil in four weeks.
35Why is there a predicted clash between Congress and the President?
There is expected to be a conflict over who controls the power to go to war, with the situation drawing parallels to the Vietnam War and posing risks for the midterm elections.
35How do China and Russia benefit from the conflict?
Both nations gain from America staying stuck in the Middle East, which distracts US resources and influence.
3Experts
Voices named in the source.
Robert Pape
Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats
2Sources and disclosure
Where this guide comes from.
This guide is based on the episode 'URGENT UPDATE - Iran War Expert: 70% Chance US Sends Troops To Iran THIS WEEK! | Robert Pape' from The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett, published on 2026-07-23.
- Publisher show notes
The War everyone assumed was over may be about to become something far worse than we could have expected. Professor Robert Pape explains exactly why the deadliest phase of this war is still ahead, and how this could trigger a wave of terror across the world.
- Publisher show notes
Robert Pape is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. A renowned political scientist, he has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of the upcoming book “Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism”.
- Publisher show notes
He explains: ■ Why the US bombing campaign failed to topple Iran’s regime, even after killing its top leaders ■ How Iran seized control of 20% of the world’s oil supply within days of the war starting ■ Why the failed agreement handed Iran a path to becoming the most powerful country in the region ■ Why both China and Russia gain from America staying stuck in the Middle East ■ Why he thinks US ground troops could be next ■ Why he thinks there will be a clash between Congress and the president over who really controls the power to go to war
- Publisher show notes
Chapters
- Publisher show notes
• 00:00:00 Intro • 00:02:22 Why Robert Pape Isn't Surprised • 00:04:04 Why the US Blocked the Strait of Hormuz • 00:05:23 The Secret JD Vance Peace Deal (MOU) • 00:08:13 Iran as Regional Hegemon, Explained • 00:09:40 How Do We Know This Is the Real Document? • 00:21:05 Did the War Actually Make Iran Stronger? • 00:22:06 The Viral Tweet: How Is Iran Still Hitting US Bases? • 00:24:37 Trump Says Iran Is Destroyed — So How? • 00:25:39 Where Iran Hides Its Drones ("A Truck in California") • 00:29:04 Iran Is Building New Drones the Whole Time • 00:32:17 Are We on the Verge of a Global Economic Crisis? • 00:36:27 What "Owning the L" Would Actually Look Like • 00:38:37 Trump: The US Runs Out of Oil in 4 Weeks • 00:40:32 The Midterm Elections Time Bomb • 00:52:13 The Vietnam Parallel: LBJ's Trap • 00:55:06 Can the US Force the Strait of Hormuz Open? • 01:03:07 A 70% Chance of Boots on the Ground in Iran • 01:14:39 Why Invading (Not Bombing) Sparks Suicide Attacks • 01:24:05 When the Two Crises Collide: A New 1960s? • 01:25:01 Will Trump Lose the Midterms? • 01:26:40 Is the US Running Out of Weapons? • 01:28:40 What Is Trump's Real Objective? • 01:34:19 Pape's Prediction for the Next Few Months
- Publisher show notes
Follow Robert: ◼ X -https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/168aNAX ◼LinkedIn -https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/EeC1Rpx ◼Substack -https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/6GWlu8Q
- Publisher show notes
You can pre-order Robert's new book, ‘Our Own Worst Enemies: America and the Age of Violent Populism’ here:https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/9XIQBJ9
- Publisher show notes
The Diary Of A CEO: ■ Join DOAC circle here - https://doaccircle.com/ ■ Buy The Diary Of A CEO book here - https://smarturl.it/DOACbook ■ The 1% Diary is back, limited time only - https://bit.ly/3YFbJbt ■ The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards - https://linkly.link/2hm7r ■ Get email updates - https://bit.ly/diary-of-a-ceo-yt ■ Follow Steven - https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb
- Publisher show notes
Sponsors: Pipedrive - https://pipedrive.com/CEO HeyGen - https://heygen.com/doac
Related listening guides