Strait of Hormuz Re-Opened
The Strait of Hormuz has mostly re-opened, reducing the immediate supply shock that had fueled higher price predictions.
1Odd Lots
Why Rory Johnston's $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Pan Out
The founder of Commodity Context discusses why crude prices remained lower than expected despite the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Listen to the source episode
Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right
Continue in GenPod
Turn this episode into your next question.
Ask naturally. GenPod can find a related episode—or make a focused explainer when the right one does not exist.Key takeaways
What to know before you press play.
$200 Prediction Context
Rory Johnston previously predicted that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to $200-a-barrel Brent crude, a forecast that did not fully materialize.
24Factors Capping Prices
Several factors kept a lid on oil prices, including re-routing of shipments, political pressure described as 'Trump jawboning,' and surprise import reductions from China.
6Market Learning
Johnston returns to share what he has learned about the oil market dynamics since the start of the conflict with Iran.
5Price Trends
While the $200 mark wasn't hit, crude prices are still up since the start of the war with Iran.
2Ask GenPod next
Keep the question moving.
“How did the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz impact global oil supply chains?”
“What specific political pressures influenced oil prices during the Iran conflict?”
“How do changes in Chinese import patterns affect global crude oil valuations?”
Background reading
The context behind the episode.
Questions
Questions to carry into the episode.
Why didn't oil prices reach $200?
Factors such as the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, re-routing, political pressure, and reduced imports from China kept prices lower than predicted.
16What was the original prediction?
Rory Johnston predicted that if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, oil prices would surge to over $200 a barrel.
47What role did China play in oil prices?
Surprise import reductions from China were a crucial factor that helped keep a lid on oil prices.
6Experts
Voices named in the source.
Rory Johnston
Founder of the Commodity Context newsletter
3Sources and disclosure
Where this guide comes from.
This guide is based on the episode 'Rory Johnston on Why His $200 Oil Prediction Didn't Turn Out Right' from the show Odd Lots, published on 2026-06-26.
- Publisher show notes
The Strait of Hormuz has (mostly) re-opened!
- Publisher show notes
Crude prices are still up since the start of the war with Iran, but popular predictions earlier this year of $200-a-barrel Brent didn’t pan out.
- Publisher show notes
We last talked to Rory Johnston, the founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, at the start of the conflict.
- Publisher show notes
And in that conversation he said that the Strait’s closure would lead to $200 oil if it persisted for any length of time.
- Publisher show notes
Today, he returns to tell us what he’s learned about the oil market since then.
- Publisher show notes
He explains the various factors that kept a lid on prices, including some re-routing, Trump jawboning, and (crucially) surprise import reductions from China.
- Publisher show notes
Previous: Rory Johnston on How Oil Could Surge to Over $200 a Barrel
- Publisher show notes
Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox, plus unlimited access to the site and app. bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots
- Publisher show notes
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Related listening guides