AI Forecasting

OpenAI Whistleblower Warns of 70% Chance of AI Catastrophe

Former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo discusses his departure from the company, his prediction that superintelligence could arrive by 2027, and his proposed plan to navigate the risks of artificial intelligence.

Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI researcher, believes there is a 70% chance that AI leads to human extinction and that superintelligence could arrive before the end of the decade. He walked away from $2 million to reveal these insights and proposes a plan to navigate superintelligence safely.

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121 minJul 13, 2026The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett

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OpenAI Whistleblower FINALLY Speaks: “AI Has A 70% Chance Of Going Horribly Wrong!“

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Key takeaways

What to know before you press play.

High Probability of AI Catastrophe

Daniel Kokotajlo assesses that there is a 70% chance AI leads to human extinction, a risk he believes is higher than the public is currently told.

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Rapid Arrival of Superintelligence

Kokotajlo predicts that superintelligence could arrive before the end of the decade, with his 'AI 2027' scenario mapping this trajectory.

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Personal Sacrifice for Transparency

Kokotajlo left OpenAI, walking away from $2 million, to share his observations about the internal dynamics and risks within the company.

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A Plan for a Safe Future

He outlines 'AI 2040: Plan A', a strategy designed to help the world navigate superintelligence safely and achieve a future worth living in.

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Impact on Employment

Kokotajlo suggests that almost every job could be automated, raising questions about the skills that will matter and the purpose people will find in an AI-driven world.

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“What specific risks did Daniel Kokotajlo observe inside OpenAI?”

“How does Kokotajlo define the difference between AGI and superintelligence?”

“What are the key components of 'AI 2040: Plan A'?”

Background reading

The context behind the episode.

About the Expert

Daniel Kokotajlo's Background

Daniel Kokotajlo is a former OpenAI researcher and founder of the AI Futures Project. He is the lead author of 'AI 2027', a scenario mapping the trajectory of artificial intelligence, and 'AI 2040: Plan A', which sets out how the world could navigate superintelligence safely.

Questions

Questions to carry into the episode.

Why did Daniel Kokotajlo leave OpenAI?

He walked away from $2 million to reveal his insights about the risks of AI and what he saw inside the company.

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What is the predicted timeline for superintelligence?

Kokotajlo believes superintelligence could arrive before the end of the decade, with specific forecasts pointing to 2027.

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What is the estimated risk of human extinction from AI?

He puts the odds of catastrophe as high as 70%.

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What is 'AI 2040: Plan A'?

It is a plan set out by Kokotajlo to help the world navigate superintelligence safely and lead to abundance.

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How will AI impact jobs?

Kokotajlo believes almost every job could be automated, prompting a need to identify which skills will still matter.

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Experts

Voices named in the source.

Daniel Kokotajlo

Former OpenAI researcher and founder of the AI Futures Project

Sources and disclosure

Where this guide comes from.

This guide is based on the episode 'OpenAI Whistleblower FINALLY Speaks: “AI Has A 70% Chance Of Going Horribly Wrong!“' from The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett, published on 2026-07-13.

Publisher show notes
Ex-OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo walked away from $2 million rather than stay silent, and now reveals why he believes there's a 70% chance AI leads to human extinction, why superintelligence could arrive before the end of the decade, and the one plan he thinks could still save us all!
Publisher show notes
Daniel Kokotajlo is a former OpenAI researcher and one of the world's leading AI forecasters. He is the founder of the AI Futures Project and the lead author of 'AI 2027', the widely-read scenario mapping the trajectory of artificial intelligence. His follow-up, 'AI 2040: Plan A', sets out how the world could still navigate superintelligence safely.
Publisher show notes
He explains: ■ What he saw inside OpenAI that made him walk away
Publisher show notes
■ Why the people building AI privately believe it's coming even sooner than the public is being told ■ What happens if AI becomes powerful enough that humans can no longer control it, and why he puts the odds of catastrophe as high as 70% ■ Why almost every job could be automated, and what that means for the next generation ■ The plan he believes could still lead to abundance and a future worth living in
Publisher show notes
Chapters
Publisher show notes
• 00:00:00 Intro • 00:02:14 Why This AI Mission Could Affect Everyone • 00:04:01 Why the Average Person Should Care About AI • 00:08:09 Are AI Experts Overreacting or Sounding the Alarm? • 00:09:46 Why He Joined OpenAI—and What He Saw Inside • 00:13:04 Why He Left OpenAI • 00:15:33 What It Was Like Inside OpenAI During ChatGPT's Launch • 00:16:56 The Million NDA Controversy Explained • 00:19:10 Is Full AI Automation Coming Faster Than We Think? • 00:23:59 The AI 2027 Forecast That Changed the Conversation • 00:26:13 AGI vs.
Publisher show notes
Superintelligence: The Difference That Matters • 00:26:57 How Robots Could Soon Become Part of Everyday Life • 00:30:03 Why AI Works More Like the Human Brain Than You Think • 00:35:54 Can AI Ever Be Truly Creative? • 00:40:55 What Are the Real Odds of Human Extinction From AI? • 00:47:38 What AI Will Do to Jobs • 00:54:25 The Skills That Will Still Matter in an AI World • 01:00:01 AI 2040: What the Future Could Look Like • 01:04:16 The Different Futures AI Could Create • 01:09:13 Will AI Become Earth's Apex Species? • 01:12:58 How AI CEOs Really Make Decisions • 01:15:17 Will AI Decide the 2028 Election? • 01:18:38 Is There a Safe Path to Accelerating AI? • 01:21:51 By 2031, AI Could Do 20% of Cognitive Work • 01:24:55 Should Everyone Receive AI Dividends? • 01:32:21 What It Will Feel Like to Live Through the AI Revolution • 01:33:51 How People Find Purpose After AI Replaces Jobs • 01:45:52 Would He Shut Down AI Forever If He Could? • 01:49:36 What Can We Actually Do About AI? • 01:57:05 Is It Already Too Late to Change Course?
Publisher show notes
Follow Daniel: X - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/47vmwiA Substack -https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/5alnhzB
Publisher show notes
Daniel's AI predictions: https://ai-2027.com/ https://ai-2040.com/
Publisher show notes
AI risk reading list: https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/ai-futurism-reading-list
Publisher show notes
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